The first weekend of the 2018 NCAA Tournament was pure madness. No. 16 UMBC upset No. 1-overall seed Virginia, while No. 1 Xavier, No. 2 Cincinnati, No. 2 UNC, No. 3 Tennessee, No. 3 Michigan State and a trio of No. 4 seeds all went home early.
Now that we’re down to the Sweet 16, which teams have the best chance to advance to the Elite Eight, Final Four and win the national championship game after this drastic shake-up to the bracket? AccuScore has simulated all possible matchups thousands of times and come up with probabilities for each remaining team to survive each round and win the national championship.
MARCH MADNESS: NCAA Tournament scores, schedule
What are the odds that your team will win it all? These probabilities will be updated after each round of the NCAA Tournament. Visit AccuScore for more in-depth analysis and game predictions to help you make your picks throughout the tournament.
2018 NCAA Tournament odds
|Team||Region||Elite 8||Final 4||Final||Champ|
|3 Texas Tech||EAST||38.80%||16.95%||8.75%||4.75%|
|5 West Virginia||EAST||29.75%||11.48%||4.98%||2.35%|
|11 Loyola (IL)||SOUTH||34.98%||18.32%||7.31%||2.05%|
|7 Texas A&M||WEST||42.29%||15.38%||6.45%||1.86%|
|9 Florida State||WEST||30.10%||12.06%||4.99%||1.16%|
|9 Kansas State||SOUTH||43.30%||12.79%||3.02%||0.34%|
March Madness predictions
Best odds to advance to the Elite Eight
Duke faces Syracuse, which entered into the NCAA Tournament via the First Four. The Blue Devils have better than an 80-percent chance to proceed to the next round by beating familiar ACC foe Syracuse’s tough zone defense. Another 11 seed, Loyola-Chicago, faces No. 7 Nevada, which surprised No. 2 Cincinnati with a comeback win. Loyola-Chicago had only a 6-percent chance to reach Elite Eight before the tournament, while Syracuse’s number was just above 2 percent. Villanova, Gonzaga, Nevada, Purdue and Kansas are teams that have better than a 60-percent win probability in the Sweet 16.
Tough next round, but potential for a run
No. 5 Kentucky has been one of the main beneficiaries of Virginia, Cincinnati and Tennessee losing in the South region. Kentucky faces Kansas State, which didn’t have great odds (0.23 percent) to make the Final Four before the tournament. If Kentucky takes care of Kansas State in what is predicted to be one of the tightest Sweet 16 matchups, it will be among the four favorites to reach the Final Four.
Among the underdogs in this round, Loyola-Chicago has the best chance to reach the Final Four. One of the reasons is that top-seeded teams are out in this region, plus Loyola has managed to pull out victories in their very tight games. That is an important characteristic of a winning team in tight tournaments.
High seeds teams with low Final Four odds
One of the two remaining No. 1 seeds, Kansas, has just a 30-percent chance to reach the Final Four based on our simulations. That is the lowest number among the teams that are predicted to be favorites in the Sweet 16. Purdue and Michigan have probabilities just above 31 percent, even though these teams are favorites in the Sweet 16. Purdue is an interesting team because it doesn’t have very high probabilities to proceed to the next rounds compared to teams with similar seedings. However, Purdue’s chances to win the tournament is the fourth-highest left on the board.
Updated odds to win 2018 NCAA Tournament
The top teams to win the NCAA Tournament based on AccuScore simulations right now are Villanova and Duke. Nova has been in that position since the start of the tournament, but Duke has improved its chances with two solid victories and some surprise losses of other teams, especially No. 3 Michigan State. Both teams have better than a 15-percent probability to win the national championship. Gonzaga and Purdue are next with an 11-percent win probability, according to AccuScore simulations. Kentucky and Michigan are the next probable winners with around 9-percent win probabilities.